At the beginning of the 1981 NFL season, I made the inspired prediction that the San Francisco Forty-niners and the Cincinatti Bengals would play in the Superbowl. Alas, I failed to put even a single dollar down on my picks (who had both gone 6-10 the previous year), and nobody, and I do mean nobody, believes me now when I recount my amazing prescience.

To think: had I documented my picks I could be making a comfortable living even now pounding out Jeanne Dixon-esque predictions of rising ocean levels and world-wide plagues for the National Enquirer. I'll never miss that chance again. So, prepare yourself, folks, for Lostingotham's clairvoyant vision of the 2004 election:

Prediction # 1
George W. Bush will carry every single state he carried in 2000. Yes, that means Florida and that means New Hampshire. It also means Kerry will lose.

Prediction # 2
Bush will carry Pennsylvania by enough of a margin that the networks will call it by 11pm Eastern time. That will be the official signal for the barking moonbats to start whining about stolen elections.

Prediction # 3
Bush will carry both Iowa and Wisconsin.

Prediction #4
Bush will carry at least one of Michigan, Minnesota and New Jersey. I'm feeling very good psychic vibes for both the Garden State and the K-Car State.

Prediction #5
Bush will carry New Mexico by a hair.

Prediction #6
Bush will carry Hawaii

Prediction #7
Tom Daschle will be making Viagra ads when the Senate convenes next Spring.

Adeimantus's electoral tie scenarios are fascinating, but you won't need 'em this year. And on Wednesday when everyone at the water cooler is scratching their heads saying "whooda thunkit?" Remember: you heard it here first.

p.s. if anyone knows an editor of the National Enquirer, I'm available to predict floods, droughts, and other weather catastropes on a per diem basis. I also do birthday parties, bar-mitzvahs and corporate events.

If the current poll numbers are to be believed, the following result is perhaps the most likely election scenario:

Bush wins all the states he won in 2000 except Ohio and New Hampshire, which Kerry wins.

Kerry wins all the states Gore won in 2000 except Wisconsin and New Mexico, which Bush wins.

The electoral vote is tied at 269 apiece.

You also end up with a 269 - 269 electoral vote tie if:

Instead of taking Ohio and New Hampshire out of the Bush column, Kerry wins Florida and New Hampshire plus all the Gore states except Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

A curious variation on the 269 - 269 tie scenarios:

Bush wins the popular tally in the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (which splits its electoral votes among its congressional districts), so he gets one electoral vote from Maine and wins 270 - 268.

To sum up and keep it simple:

(NOTE--Except as otherwise indicated, the following scenarios are based on Bush winning all the states he won in 2000 and Kerry winning all the states Gore won in 2000.)

1) If Kerry loses Pennsylvania, which seems unlikely, we can start the party early . . . unless Bush loses both Florida and Ohio, in which case see scenario #5.

2) If Kerry hangs on to Pennsylvania and flips New Hampshire and Ohio, it will be a nail-biter, because we'll need to flip Wisconsin and Iowa to win at 271 - 269 or flip Wisconsin and New Mexico to tie at 269.

3) If Bush loses Florida and New Hampshire, start praying really hard, because then we'll have to hang on to all the rest of the red states plus flip all three of Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico just to tie at 269.

4) If Bush wins both Ohio and Florida, we can relax a little: Kerry can flip New Hampshire, keep Iowa, keep New Mexico, and keep Wisconsin, and Bush would still win 274 - 264 just by hanging on to the remainder of 2000 red states.

5) But if Bush loses both Ohio and Florida, you can put down your calculators and turn out the lights because the party will be over . . . . unless Bush flips Pennsylvania, in which case, if Bush also flips Iowa and Wisconsin and hangs on to New Hampshire, it's another 269 -269 tie.

My own bet is:

Bush wins all his 2000 states except New Hampshire, and he adds New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin to his column to win the electoral vote 296 - 242.

Here's a link to a handy electoral vote calculator you can use to double-check my math or to refine and indulge your own speculations, which I invite you to share with us in the comments section of this post.

[On a personal note, I want to thank Tom once again for keeping the blog alive during my virtual absence this last month. I haven't quite fallen off the edge of the earth yet, but I was teetering right there on the brink for a while. Sorry to say that the way things look right now, it will be after election day before I can find time to post again. We've moved all our junk into the new house, but we're still living out of boxes, sleeping on mattresses on the floor because we haven't gotten the bed put together, and dining in the car on the way home from McDonalds. (Just like college, but without all the romance!) Both the wife and I have been super busy in our working lives, which means I can't do the usual trick of sloughing household duties onto her to give me time for blogging. Anyway, no matter how this election goes, I'll have plenty more to say about it when it's over. In the meantime, check back often for Tom's delicious satire.

And just for the record, if Bush loses, I am not moving to France!--Adeimantus]

Amid all the celebrating that's surely going on in Boston today I wonder if a more poignant note hasn't gone unnoticed.

For me the Sox, and especially the Sox fans, have always been symbols of some of the finest of human qualities: perseverance, optimism and loyalty in the face of adversity. More than two dozen Series pennants hang in the Bronx yet the fans there regularly boo the home team. The Fenway fans endured an eighty-six year dry spell yet remained the most loyal fans in baseball. Whenever the Sox and Yankees met a little morality play unfolded before our eyes. Even die-hard Yankees fans had to secretly admit that if there were any justice in the cosmos Boston, and surely their fans, really deserved to win more. But somehow that didn't measure up to the sheer beauty of seeing the Sox, against all odds, maintain their faith after losing yet again.

I think all this is somehow a metaphor for the human condition. All of us are mortal. There can be no doubt, at the end of our personal Series, who will be the victor. We may make some great plays in Game 3, and we may even stretch things to extra innings in Game 7, but when the final strike is called death will walk away with the pennant. Nonetheless we struggle up to bat, we take our place on the mound (even with blood soaking our ankles) and we continue to play. There is nothing so noble as man defiant in defeat, hopeless yet unbowed. This is the stuff of high tragedy, of history, and of legend. And until last night it was the Boston Red Sox.

Did they deserve to win? No doubt. They've deserved to win yea these many years. They deserved it and I'm happy for them. But I cannot help thinking that something important has passed away; that the Red Sox, baseball, and all of us have somehow lost a real connection to the thing that is best about humanity: that quality that makes us go out and try again, and try our hardest, and believe that this is finally the year...even when we've already tried and failed eighty-six times.

Do I have something against the Sox? Some of my Sox-loving friends seem to think so. I suppose I have something against Charlie Brown, too, because I think he just wouldn't have been the same if he'd ever managed to kick that football. I have something against Sisyphus because I think his story is far more profound than those of the millions of nobodies who managed to get their boulders to the top of their hills. Victory is thin stuff, as the Yankees fans have amply demonstrated; its joys last only until the next inevitable defeat. The Sox had something finer--they had unfounded faith, irrational courage, and unreasonable loyalty. I don't doubt that the virtues are still there, but the game last night dispelled the adjectives that made them truly rare and glorious. That, my friends, is a heavy loss.

[Lostingotham is a die-hard Astros fan. He'd never admit it, but in his heart of hearts he's pleased to still be rooting for a loser. - Ed.]