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Lady Liberty

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Thursday, October 28, 2004

Electoral Vote Scenarios
posted by Bathus

If the current poll numbers are to be believed, the following result is perhaps the most likely election scenario:
Bush wins all the states he won in 2000 except Ohio and New Hampshire, which Kerry wins.

Kerry wins all the states Gore won in 2000 except Wisconsin and New Mexico, which Bush wins.

The electoral vote is tied at 269 apiece.
You also end up with a 269 - 269 electoral vote tie if:
Instead of taking Ohio and New Hampshire out of the Bush column, Kerry wins Florida and New Hampshire plus all the Gore states except Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.
A curious variation on the 269 - 269 tie scenarios:
Bush wins the popular tally in the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (which splits its electoral votes among its congressional districts), so he gets one electoral vote from Maine and wins 270 - 268.
To sum up and keep it simple:

(NOTE--Except as otherwise indicated, the following scenarios are based on Bush winning all the states he won in 2000 and Kerry winning all the states Gore won in 2000.)
1) If Kerry loses Pennsylvania, which seems unlikely, we can start the party early . . . unless Bush loses both Florida and Ohio, in which case see scenario #5.
2) If Kerry hangs on to Pennsylvania and flips New Hampshire and Ohio, it will be a nail-biter, because we'll need to flip Wisconsin and Iowa to win at 271 - 269 or flip Wisconsin and New Mexico to tie at 269.
3) If Bush loses Florida and New Hampshire, start praying really hard, because then we'll have to hang on to all the rest of the red states plus flip all three of Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico just to tie at 269.
4) If Bush wins both Ohio and Florida, we can relax a little: Kerry can flip New Hampshire, keep Iowa, keep New Mexico, and keep Wisconsin, and Bush would still win 274 - 264 just by hanging on to the remainder of 2000 red states.
5) But if Bush loses both Ohio and Florida, you can put down your calculators and turn out the lights because the party will be over . . . . unless Bush flips Pennsylvania, in which case, if Bush also flips Iowa and Wisconsin and hangs on to New Hampshire, it's another 269 -269 tie.
My own bet is:
Bush wins all his 2000 states except New Hampshire, and he adds New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin to his column to win the electoral vote 296 - 242.
Here's a link to a handy electoral vote calculator you can use to double-check my math or to refine and indulge your own speculations, which I invite you to share with us in the comments section of this post.

[On a personal note, I want to thank Tom once again for keeping the blog alive during my virtual absence this last month. I haven't quite fallen off the edge of the earth yet, but I was teetering right there on the brink for a while. Sorry to say that the way things look right now, it will be after election day before I can find time to post again. We've moved all our junk into the new house, but we're still living out of boxes, sleeping on mattresses on the floor because we haven't gotten the bed put together, and dining in the car on the way home from McDonalds. (Just like college, but without all the romance!) Both the wife and I have been super busy in our working lives, which means I can't do the usual trick of sloughing household duties onto her to give me time for blogging. Anyway, no matter how this election goes, I'll have plenty more to say about it when it's over. In the meantime, check back often for Tom's delicious satire.

And just for the record, if Bush loses, I am not moving to France!--Adeimantus]

posted by Bathus | 10/28/2004 08:48:00 PM
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